Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eb3…32c4 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$3
world 25% −$1
economics 12% $0
other 9% −$7
finance 3% −$25
sports 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.3% -10.7% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 -1.0% -10.5% 13% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 22 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 0% -10.8%
all 30 -12.6% -20.9% 37% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 0% -11.3%
10% -28.5% 0% -19.8%
15% -35.4% 0% -27.5%
20% -41.7% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage527d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $49 +$2 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $48 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $59 −$25 -43%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $225 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $226 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $225 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $224 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $224 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $3 −$1 -36%
Kennesaw State vs. Louisiana Tech Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fox News Oval Office inter Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Malmo FF beat Twente? Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Jan 23 $11 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $7 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $37 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $38 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $15 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $13 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.13 · official $36.08 (match) · 92 history records