Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0E 0x0eb1…5a16 crypto 815 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+0%) realized +$97 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%729W / 72L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$38
14 days+$110
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$216
crypto 41% −$137
sports 10% +$40
politics 2% +$29
finance 2% +$10
world 1% +$18
tech 1% −$75
economics 0% +$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -16.2% -24.1% 83% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 175 +5.1% -4.9% 87% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 688 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 5% -9.5%
all 801 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$1,962
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses729 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions12
Markets (closed)801 / 815
History coverage230d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 801 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,479 $1,486 +$7 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $330 $337 +$6 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-23? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 100¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 83¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 74¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,500 +$4 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 16? Jun 17 $260 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 16? Jun 17 $160 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? Jun 17 $800 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 16? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 15 $400 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $400 +$2 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,901 +$37 +1%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $77 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $703 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,279 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 11 $290 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 10? Jun 10 $455 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $200 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,717 +$17 +1%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin above 60,400 on June 9, 1PM ET? Jun 09 $90 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 9, 1PM ET? Jun 09 $120 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 9, 1PM ET? Jun 09 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,200 on June 9, 1PM ET? Jun 09 $140 $0 +0%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2,938 +$3 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,499 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 7? Jun 08 $290 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 7? Jun 08 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $500 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $629 +$1 +0%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $193 $0 +0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $1,699 +$2 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 6? Jun 07 $400 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 6? Jun 07 $450 +$1 +0%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2,083 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 30m
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 40m
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $221 1h
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $421 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $474 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $3 31h
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $400 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $260 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $160 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $400 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $70 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $200 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,962.25 · official $1,962.25 (match) · 2339 history records