Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

0E 0x0eaf…2e56 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-4%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-24.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-16.2%	-24.1%	33%	33%	-8.0%
≤30d	3	-16.2%	-24.1%	33%	33%	-8.0%
≤90d	3	-16.2%	-24.1%	33%	33%	-8.0%
all	3	-16.2%	-24.1%	33%	33%	-8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.1%	33%	-8.0%
10%	-31.4%	33%	-16.8%
15%	-38.0%	33%	-24.8%
20%	-44.1%	33%	-32.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage6d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$15	+152%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	36m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $0.99 (match) · 5 history records