Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0E 0x0eaf…1f76 crypto 401 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (173 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,325 (+4%) realized +$3,326 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate69%276W / 124L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day173.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,447
sports 0% +$17
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (173 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 400 +2.2% -7.6% 69% 67% -6.7%
≤30d 400 +2.2% -7.6% 69% 67% -6.7%
≤90d 400 +2.2% -7.6% 69% 67% -6.7%
all 400 +2.2% -7.6% 69% 67% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover173.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 67% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 56% -15.6%
15% -24.5% 38% -23.7%
20% -31.9% 19% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$166 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3,326
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses276 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)400 / 401
History coverage6d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day173.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$29 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $202 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $514 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $615 +$203 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1,023 −$651 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $515 +$113 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$122 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $517 +$430 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $621 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$103 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $412 +$299 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $414 +$371 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $411 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $410 +$74 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $307 +$144 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.16 · official $4.16 (match) · 1283 history records