Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eae…71af other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$3
world 26% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 8% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 13 -2.7% -12.0% 31% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 13 -2.7% -12.0% 31% 0% -9.4%
all 49 -0.6% -10.1% 41% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage298d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $1 $0 -38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Diddy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $22 +$2 +8%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 10 $24 $0 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 29 $7 $0 -2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 28 $21 $0 -1%
Was Kanye hacked? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $41 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $40 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $40 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 29h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $40 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $36 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $35 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $35 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $17 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $21 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.74 · official $40.74 (match) · 227 history records