Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eab…821b other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-6%) realized +$12 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$13
sports 13% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.3% -24.3% 50% 50% -3.6%
≤30d 8 +14.3% +3.4% 62% 62% +3.1%
≤90d 8 +14.3% +3.4% 62% 62% +3.1%
all 8 +14.3% +3.4% 62% 62% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 62% +3.1%
10% -6.5% 50% -6.8%
15% -15.5% 38% -15.8%
20% -23.8% 38% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage10d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? Yes $135 $104 −$31 (-23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $34 +$7 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 +$11 +35%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $52 +$28 +54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$8 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $7 44m
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 1h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $5 3h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $1 3h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $31 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 29h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 29h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 29h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $27 3d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $10 3d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $10 4d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $16 4d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $7 4d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $9 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 8d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $3 8d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 9d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $37 9d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.47 · official $105.46 (match) · 38 history records