Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0E
0x0eaa…c521
world · 43 markets active 16d ago
0.0score
−$13,767 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,647 · open −$25,414
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,586
Realized+$11,647
Unrealized−$25,414
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$328
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage116d
Avg bet$8,926
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 2 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$102,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 49¢ 16¢ $30,000 $9,489 −$20,511 (-68%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5,000 $97 −$4,903 (-98%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $52,027 $0 −$52,027 (-100%)
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 0¢ $10,805 $0 −$10,805 (-100%)
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $277 $0 −$277 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $17,615 $0 −$17,615 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,535 $0 −$1,535 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,980 $0 −$1,980 (-100%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $26,206 $0 −$26,206 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $52,028 −$52,027 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 27 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 27 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $1,596 −$1,535 -96%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $2,058 −$1,980 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $17,979 −$17,615 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $26,815 −$26,206 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 May 09 $284 −$277 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $11,004 −$10,805 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $12,963 −$12,895 -100%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 23 $329 −$329 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 23 $1,574 −$1,574 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Apr 23 $4,596 −$4,596 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Apr 23 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-03-01? Apr 23 $6,416 −$6,416 -100%
Will Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Apr 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 23 $7,570 −$7,570 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 23 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 23 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 23 $573 −$573 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 23 $5,232 −$5,232 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $2,998 −$2,968 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $378 +$12,947 +3426%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $53,437 +$127,064 +238%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $8,571 +$41,710 +487%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Apr 08 $29,664 −$29,664 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 02 $1,825 +$2,850 +156%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $2,000 +$2,995 +150%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $15,000 +$12,438 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 01 $904 −$904 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $15,079 +$10,370 +69%
Blackhawks vs. Avalanche Mar 01 $594 +$395 +66%
Rockets vs. Heat Feb 28 $244 +$349 +143%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $4,624 −$4,379 -95%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $15,184 −$832 -6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $13,874 +$5,282 +38%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 28 $7,049 −$7,049 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 28 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026? Feb 28 $9,778 +$5,423 +56%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 22 $5,945 −$4,100 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% +$26,190
other 15% −$32,907
sports 14% −$845
crypto 2% −$1,700
politics 1% −$4,504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,628 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $300 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $5,000 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $500 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $10,000 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $10,000 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,000 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,000 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,000 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,000 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,000 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,000 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5,000 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 52¢ $10,000 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 49¢ $10,000 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 49¢ $3,471 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 45¢ $6,529 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $500 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,000 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,000 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,000 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,000 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,000 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $10,000 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $4,000 16d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 25d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 25d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 25d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $83 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 27 +12.1% +1.4% 11% 11% -14.7%
all 41 +15.1% +4.1% 27% 27% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 27% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -5.9% 27% -16.7%
15% -15.0% 27% -24.8%
20% -23.3% 24% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,586.14 · official $9,586.14 (match) · 337 history records