Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0eaa…9068 sports 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$616 (+9%) realized +$443 · open +$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%90W / 123L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days+$86
14 days+$448
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$447
sports 36% +$147
world 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -11.2% -19.6% 39% 38% -4.7%
≤30d 213 +2.2% -7.5% 42% 42% +0.4%
≤90d 213 +2.2% -7.5% 42% 42% +0.4%
all 213 +2.2% -7.5% 42% 42% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 42% +0.4%
10% -16.4% 41% -9.2%
15% -24.4% 38% -18.0%
20% -31.9% 35% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$2,553
Realized+$443
Unrealized+$173
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses90 / 123
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions12
Markets (closed)213 / 231
History coverage39d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 25¢ $632 $815 +$184 (+29%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 37¢ $616 $773 +$157 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $350 $257 −$93 (-26%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $304 $239 −$65 (-21%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $256 $218 −$38 (-15%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 51¢ $80 $109 +$29 (+36%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 31¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 51¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $44 +$41 +93%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg Jun 28 $20 +$42 +210%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $29 −$22 -75%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -95%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $6 −$4 -67%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $27 −$17 -64%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $19 +$9 +50%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $17 +$13 +75%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $28 −$23 -83%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $16 +$44 +270%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -27%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 28 $11 −$5 -47%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $12 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $10 −$6 -54%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $15 +$18 +118%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $61 +$63 +104%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $65 +$89 +136%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $19 −$13 -70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $71 −$56 -79%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $40 −$23 -58%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $22 −$22 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $11 −$6 -56%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 +$40 +784%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $42 +$34 +80%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $71 +$58 +82%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 −$3 -66%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $20 +$46 +226%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $13 +$17 +127%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $22 +$18 +85%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $33 +$17 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $66 −$44 -66%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$44 +216%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $23 +$8 +34%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 +$12 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $20 38m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 38m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 39m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $82 40m
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 42m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 43m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg SELL 93¢ $62 45m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Jordan 99¢ $49 50m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 53m
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 53m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 80¢ $40 54m
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 57m
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 58m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 15¢ $10 58m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 93¢ $28 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 3¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 62¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 28¢ $0 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $27 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $18 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,552.95 · official $2,552.97 (match) · 577 history records