Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0ea8…4f33 weather 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$179 (+1%) realized +$176 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%111W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$119
14 days+$127
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% +$39
crypto 27% +$105
other 11% +$9
finance 7% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +1.6% -8.0% 100% 3% -7.7%
≤30d 60 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 2% -8.4%
≤90d 111 +0.7% -8.8% 100% 1% -8.7%
all 111 +0.7% -8.8% 100% 1% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 1% -8.7%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized+$176
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses111 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage62d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Down 99¢ 100¢ $409 $411 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $252 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $92 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $62 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $322 +$54 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $342 +$10 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $336 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $189 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $304 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $323 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $259 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $69 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $322 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $312 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $285 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $252 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $194 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $304 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $305 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $303 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $299 +$5 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $290 +$9 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $120 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $247 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $122 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $284 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $278 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $281 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $177 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $271 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $273 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $273 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $273 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 27? May 28 $272 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $47 57m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $63 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $78 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $21 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $232 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $63 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $228 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $87 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $46 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $336 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $65 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.49 · official $411.49 (match) · 368 history records