Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ea8…6ef8 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$753 (-1%) realized −$755 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%31W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$870per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$348
politics 35% −$51
sports 14% −$331
economics 5% −$8
world 2% −$41
crypto 1% +$5
tech 1% +$3
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -19.1% -26.8% 8% 2% -10.7%
all 121 -6.0% -14.9% 26% 7% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 7% -10.2%
10% -23.1% 7% -18.8%
15% -30.5% 7% -26.6%
20% -37.3% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,353) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$20 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$1,018
Realized−$755
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses31 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage153d
Avg bet$870
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $703 $705 +$2 (+0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $313 $313 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $314 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $287 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $324 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,927 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,943 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,211 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,697 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $990 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,471 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $373 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $667 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,767 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $3,053 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,636 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 02 $900 +$2 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $5,721 −$6 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $7,628 −$9 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,353 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,769 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,106 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 08 $2,996 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $331 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $313 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $313 18h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 19h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $267 20h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $267 23h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $264 43h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $265 45h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $212 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $312 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $312 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $286 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $287 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $205 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $205 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $323 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $324 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $703 10d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,377 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,379 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,382 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,384 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,434 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,436 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,385 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,312 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,315 16d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,456 16d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,458 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,018.34 · official $1,018.34 (match) · 351 history records