Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ea5…57db crypto 210 markets active 6d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,299 (-21%) realized −$3,299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%85W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,968
14 days−$1,126
30 days−$1,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,726
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -37.5% -43.4% 30% 30% -59.6%
≤30d 78 -18.6% -26.4% 40% 40% -23.3%
≤90d 173 -23.1% -30.5% 41% 39% -30.7%
all 210 -18.9% -26.6% 40% 39% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 39% -31.4%
10% -33.6% 37% -38.0%
15% -40.0% 35% -44.0%
20% -45.9% 30% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$72 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses85 / 125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage96d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$11 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $85 +$72 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$30 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$21 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$60 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $81 −$57 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $83 −$66 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $88 +$104 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $183 −$75 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $94 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$77 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $135 −$79 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $241 −$202 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $63 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $218 −$180 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $221 −$210 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $420 +$218 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $240 −$230 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $147 −$110 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $269 −$260 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $125 +$322 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $178 +$268 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $134 +$100 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $186 −$180 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $113 +$61 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $208 +$269 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $61 +$23 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $93 +$59 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$30 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 777 history records