Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0ea2…c40e sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,238 (+18%) realized +$1,238 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
≤30d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
≤90d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
all 13 +6.6% -3.5% 62% 62% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 62% +7.1%
10% -12.8% 62% -3.1%
15% -21.2% 54% -12.5%
20% -28.9% 46% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$456 vs −$481 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$1,238
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage110d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $7 +$2 +23%
Avalanche vs. Kings Mar 03 $589 +$361 +61%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 03 $1,029 +$876 +85%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 02 $348 +$157 +45%
Devils vs. Blues Mar 01 $810 +$810 +100%
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Mar 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 28 $658 +$712 +108%
Penguins vs. Rangers Feb 28 $395 −$395 -100%
Rockets vs. Heat Feb 28 $435 −$435 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $260 +$205 +79%
Rockets vs. Magic Feb 27 $613 +$522 +85%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 27 $202 −$202 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 25 $374 −$374 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $11 57m
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 40¢ $7 35d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Blue Jackets 54¢ $837 105d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Blue Jackets 54¢ $192 105d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $550 105d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $39 105d
Golden Knights vs. Penguins BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $1,000 106d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 69¢ $348 106d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $810 107d
Penguins vs. Rangers BUY Penguins 52¢ $395 107d
Rockets vs. Heat BUY Rockets 60¢ $435 107d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $658 108d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 26¢ $2 108d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 26¢ $200 108d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 56¢ $257 110d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 56¢ $4 110d
Rockets vs. Magic BUY Rockets 54¢ $613 110d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY Heat 52¢ $374 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.83 · official $10.83 (match) · 26 history records