Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0E 0x0e9d…dafa other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$33 (+12%) realized +$34 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$90per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+15.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+27.2%	+15.1%	100%	50%	+12.0%
≤30d	2	+27.2%	+15.1%	100%	50%	+12.0%
≤90d	2	+27.2%	+15.1%	100%	50%	+12.0%
all	2	+27.2%	+15.1%	100%	50%	+12.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.1%	50%	+12.0%
10%	+4.1%	50%	+1.3%
15%	-6.0%	50%	-8.5%
20%	-15.2%	0%	-17.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$105

Realized+$34

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$90

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	No	84¢	84¢	$106	$105	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$97	+$9	+9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$67	+$31	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	84¢	$106	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	96¢	$106	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	88¢	$97	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$67	11h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.16 · official $105.16 (match) · 5 history records