Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0e9b…51a0 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$186 (-8%) realized −$131 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,353
7 days−$1,353
14 days−$1,353
30 days−$1,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,584
other 9% −$3
world 2% −$4
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.2% -8.5% 25% 25% -83.0%
≤30d 20 -27.6% -34.5% 25% 20% -83.2%
≤90d 20 -27.6% -34.5% 25% 20% -83.2%
all 20 -27.6% -34.5% 25% 20% -83.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 20% -83.2%
10% -40.8% 15% -84.8%
15% -46.5% 10% -86.3%
20% -51.7% 10% -87.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$112 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Open positions12
Markets (closed)20 / 32
History coverage24d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 39¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $314 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $415 −$394 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $229 −$214 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $125 +$92 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$35 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 25 $69 −$64 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $112 −$105 -94%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? May 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 23 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 23 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down $43 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $69 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down $40 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down $67 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down $61 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down $46 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down $48 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down $59 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down $102 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $23 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.33 · official $240.35 (match) · 77 history records