Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:52:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0E 0x0e98…5f4e sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$165 (+17%) realized +$166 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip

Net edge+22%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%15W / 11L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$36per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$39

7 days+$57

14 days+$161

30 days+$152

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+22.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+52.6%	+38.1%	60%	60%	+9.9%
≤30d	26	+34.9%	+22.1%	58%	58%	+6.0%
≤90d	26	+34.9%	+22.1%	58%	58%	+6.0%
all	26	+34.9%	+22.1%	58%	58%	+6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.1%	58%	+6.0%
10%	+10.4%	58%	-4.1%
15%	-0.3%	58%	-13.4%
20%	-10.1%	58%	-21.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +36% → late +33% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$32 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.43 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage

Net worth$81

Realized+$166

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses15 / 11

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)26 / 27

History coverage20d

Avg bet$36

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Yes	61¢	60¢	$82	$81	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$30	−$30	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$41	−$40	-99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$31	+$31	+97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$31	+307%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$32	+$30	+93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$20	+$21	+101%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$32	−$32	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$32	+$29	+90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	+$36	+238%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 13	$38	−$38	-100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$25	+$27	+109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$25	−$25	-100%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	Jun 07	$51	+$34	+67%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 07	$20	+$54	+262%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score	Jun 07	$31	+$30	+97%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 07	$8	−$8	-100%
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score	Jun 06	$31	+$30	+97%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 06	$21	+$26	+121%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 04	$53	−$53	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 04	$53	−$52	-98%
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 04	$53	−$4	-7%
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	Jun 02	$53	+$49	+93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01?	Jun 02	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw?	Jun 01	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31?	Jun 01	$56	+$46	+83%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	61¢	$83	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$30	17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$41	37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$31	45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	38¢	$20	3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$32	3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$20	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	29¢	$15	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$32	5d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	44¢	$32	5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$25	8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	38¢	$25	8d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10?	BUY Yes	45¢	$38	10d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$85	12d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07?	BUY Yes	27¢	$20	12d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	12d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$62	12d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$31	13d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06?	BUY Yes	29¢	$8	13d
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$62	13d
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$31	14d
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$21	15d
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	15d
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	48¢	$53	15d
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	40¢	$49	15d
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$53	15d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	51¢	$53	15d
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$102	17d
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$53	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.33 · official $81.33 (match) · 52 history records