Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e95…c0a3 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,068 (-36%) realized −$1,068 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$8
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$60
other 26% −$541
sports 23% −$585
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -17.6% -25.4% 75% 50% -6.2%
≤30d 5 -34.0% -40.3% 60% 40% -14.0%
≤90d 5 -34.0% -40.3% 60% 40% -14.0%
all 13 -23.8% -31.0% 62% 31% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 31% -42.4%
10% -37.6% 15% -47.9%
15% -43.7% 8% -53.0%
20% -49.2% 0% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$233 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,068
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage595d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$8 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $600 −$600 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $1 $0 +6%
Hurricanes vs. Sharks Nov 06 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28? Oct 15 $1 $0 +49%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 15 $50 +$13 +27%
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 16 $1,466 +$67 +4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $20 −$6 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records