Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e93…6a82 other 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$133 (+4%) realized +$145 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%100W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$19
14 days−$174
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$66
politics 22% +$221
tech 5% −$8
world 3% −$5
sports 1% −$17
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +16.4% +5.4% 70% 70% -7.6%
≤30d 150 +7.4% -2.8% 64% 63% -4.7%
≤90d 157 +8.4% -1.9% 64% 63% -5.6%
all 157 +8.4% -1.9% 64% 63% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 63% -5.6%
10% -11.3% 59% -14.6%
15% -19.9% 38% -22.9%
20% -27.7% 29% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized+$145
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses100 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)157 / 177
History coverage35d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Water" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+6%)
Will Trump post "Knicks" on Truth Social this week? No 80¢ 68¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will "Woman" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? Yes 64¢ 63¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will "Knicks" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No 80¢ 60¢ $32 $24 −$8 (-25%)
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? No 74¢ 54¢ $29 $21 −$8 (-27%)
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+20%)
Will "Spurs" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No 65¢ 78¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+21%)
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Yes 38¢ 64¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+68%)
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? Yes 72¢ 71¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week? Yes 74¢ 60¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No 59¢ 71¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+20%)
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? No 25¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-43%)
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 56¢ 80¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+44%)
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No 77¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No 14¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+129%)
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 82¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Trump post "Dana" or "White" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $16 +$4 +25%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +92%
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Will MrBeast say "Hottest" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $33 +$7 +22%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +59%
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $49 +$31 +63%
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $33 +$7 +22%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $9 +$16 +186%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $55 +$25 +46%
Will "Macroeconomy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 13 $9 +$2 +22%
Will "European Union" be said during the next episode of the All-In Po Jun 13 $32 +$8 +24%
Will "Data Center" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All Jun 13 $15 +$40 +266%
Will "AI" be said 50+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 13 $54 +$26 +50%
Will "Cancer" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 13 $46 +$34 +75%
Will "Anthropic" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the All- Jun 13 $31 +$9 +28%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next YouTube video? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said during the next episode of the Lemona Jun 10 $59 +$21 +36%
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of Jun 09 $1 +$1 +113%
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 09 $64 +$16 +26%
Will "Instagram" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 09 $18 +$22 +127%
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 09 $53 +$27 +50%
Will "Bitcoin" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will "Comparison" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas Jun 09 $49 −$49 -100%
Will "National Security" be said during the next episode of the All-In Jun 08 $27 −$26 -97%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $9 +$21 +245%
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $17 +$14 +82%
Will anyone say "Bird" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $33 −$33 -100%
Will "Algorithm" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Expe Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "Table" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experien Jun 08 $34 −$34 -100%
Will "Pyramid" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experi Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Conspiracy" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Exp Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? Jun 08 $25 −$20 -80%
Will anyone say "Assassin" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +33%
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo Jun 08 $10 +$6 +56%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $16 +$14 +92%
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $40 +$20 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 1h
Will "Spurs" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY No 65¢ $0 1h
Will "Spurs" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY No 65¢ $13 1h
Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY No 59¢ $6 1h
Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY No 77¢ $3 2h
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY No 82¢ $2 8h
Will "Woman" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 65¢ $13 9h
Will "Woman" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 70¢ $14 9h
Will "Water" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 63¢ $13 9h
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 56¢ $3 10h
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 56¢ $3 11h
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY No 14¢ $1 14h
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience BUY Yes 62¢ $12 23h
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience BUY Yes 67¢ $13 23h
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P BUY No 25¢ $5 24h
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P BUY No 25¢ $5 24h
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 24h
Will "Water" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 68¢ $14 32h
Will "Knicks" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po BUY No 77¢ $15 2d
Will "Knicks" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po BUY No 82¢ $16 2d
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 2d
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 46¢ $9 2d
Will Trump post "Knicks" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 77¢ $15 2d
Will Trump post "Knicks" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 82¢ $16 2d
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 35¢ $7 2d
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 71¢ $14 2d
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 76¢ $15 2d
Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc BUY Yes 71¢ $14 2d
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 5+ times during the BUY Yes 80¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.52 · official $286.73 (match) · 506 history records