Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e8e…c2bb other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$281 (-4%) realized −$281 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$585per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$71
sports 44% −$1,221
crypto 6% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.5% -20.8% 36% 27% -31.5%
≤30d 11 -12.5% -20.8% 36% 27% -31.5%
≤90d 11 -12.5% -20.8% 36% 27% -31.5%
all 11 -12.5% -20.8% 36% 27% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 27% -31.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 27% -38.1%
15% -35.3% 27% -44.1%
20% -41.7% 27% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$367 vs −$431 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$585
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $653 −$640 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $512 −$500 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,159 −$1,140 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $637 −$18 -3%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $512 +$14 +3%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $204 +$462 +226%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $509 −$18 -4%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,022 +$559 +55%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $507 +$431 +85%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $410 −$400 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $143 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $511 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 18¢ $512 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $204 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $955 14h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 30¢ $619 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 20¢ $526 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 30¢ $637 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 17h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $491 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $1,581 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $410 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records