Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e87…907f world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$13
world 40% −$6
politics 15% +$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 25% 12% -11.0%
all 28 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 14% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 14% -7.7%
10% -17.9% 4% -16.5%
15% -25.8% 4% -24.6%
20% -33.1% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage453d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $36 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $74 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $48 −$4 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 11 $26 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $16 +$14 +93%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 01 $16 $0 +2%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Pork" during today's Iftar Dinner? Mar 29 $14 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 56m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $39 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $17 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $35 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $35 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $34 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $38 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $42 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $42 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $0 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $0 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $0 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $0 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $17 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $21 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $39 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.75 · official $17.75 (match) · 102 history records