trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $160 | −$19 | -12% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $82 | −$3 | -3% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $90 | +$16 | +18% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $74 | −$9 | -12% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 26? | Feb 26 | $78 | −$13 | -17% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26? | Feb 26 | $104 | +$113 | +109% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 25? | Feb 25 | $36 | +$9 | +24% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 23? | Feb 23 | $61 | +$4 | +6% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 13? | Feb 13 | $78 | +$7 | +9% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 12? | Feb 12 | $11 | +$3 | +30% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11? | Feb 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho | Feb 09 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $700M at marke | Feb 09 | $60 | +$5 | +8% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 5? | Feb 06 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX? | Feb 05 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 4? | Feb 04 | $10 | +$4 | +38% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 3? | Feb 03 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29? | Feb 03 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Feb 03 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Feb 03 | $48 | +$52 | +108% |
| US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026? | Jan 29 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? | Jan 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31? | Jan 28 | $80 | +$6 | +8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -20.0% | -27.6% | 20% | 20% | -12.6% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -20.0% | -27.6% | 20% | 20% | -12.6% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -20.0% | -27.6% | 20% | 20% | -12.6% |
| all | 24 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 62% | 25% | +0.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.4% | 25% | +0.4% |
| 10% | -23.5% | 21% | -9.2% |
| 15% | -30.9% | 12% | -18.0% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 8% | -26.0% |