Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e86…490f sports 171 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%9W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$3
politics 21% −$4
other 18% −$2
economics 10% −$2
world 8% −$1
crypto 6% +$1
culture 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 171 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses9 / 162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 171
History coverage166d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $38 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $115 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $113 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $267 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $310 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $211 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $259 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $124 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $124 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $157 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $37 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $37 5h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 94¢ $37 14d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 95¢ $38 14d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $32 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $32 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $30 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $30 36d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 118d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $37 118d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 118d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 118d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 118d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 118d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 118d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $17 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $21 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $38 118d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 118d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 118d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $7 118d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $25 118d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $32 118d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 118d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 118d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 118d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 587 history records