Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e85…b7b2 other 8 markets active 8h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$24 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$23
sports 19% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +23.6% +11.9% 50% 50% -53.5%
≤30d 2 +23.6% +11.9% 50% 50% -53.5%
≤90d 2 +23.6% +11.9% 50% 50% -53.5%
all 2 +23.6% +11.9% 50% 50% -53.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 50% -53.5%
10% +1.2% 50% -58.0%
15% -8.6% 50% -62.0%
20% -17.6% 50% -65.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $95 $111 +$16 (+17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+61%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $87 $72 −$14 (-17%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$27 -53%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $22 8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 8h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $98 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $89 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2 BUY 15¢ $97 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.25 · official $455.25 · 11 history records