Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e82…dec7 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,548 (+2%) realized +$1,587 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%84W / 7L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$729per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$16
other 26% +$1,537
world 18% +$28
sports 11% +$11
finance 5% −$17
tech 2% +$2
economics 2% +$3
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.4%
all 91 +1.1% -8.5% 92% 1% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 1% -7.4%
10% -17.3% 1% -16.3%
15% -25.3% 1% -24.4%
20% -32.6% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×76.65 per $1 lost it wins $76.65
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$1,587
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses84 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage134d
Avg bet$729
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $72 −$38 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $136 $0 +0%
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Harrison Barnes lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hart lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mikal Bridges lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $123 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 12 $130 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? Apr 01 $492 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 31 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Delcy" or "Rodriguez" during Cabinet meeting on March Mar 27 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April Mar 26 $2,426 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Mar 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $2,748 +$3 +0%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Memphis Roundt Mar 23 $1,598 +$2 +0%
Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $605 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $58 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Stupid" or "Idiot" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $142 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Excursion" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $165 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 25+ times during Memphis Roundt Mar 23 $133 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Chicago" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $420 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Rubio" or "Vance" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $838 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" 3+ times during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $639 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $502 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "ID" or "Identification" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $1,912 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Mar 23 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Mar 23 $2,029 +$2 +0%
Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference? Mar 19 $226 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "China" during March press conference? Mar 19 $359 +$1 +0%
Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference? Mar 19 $658 +$2 +0%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $1,980 +$2 +0%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference? Mar 18 $195 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $3,219 +$3 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 11 $3,215 +$3 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $184 −$21 -11%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Miami address? Mar 10 $2,305 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 09 $262 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 1 Mar 07 $2,966 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 27 to Mar 07 $61 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $136 1h
Will New Zealand reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $136 4d
Will Josh Hart lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Mikal Bridges lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? SELL No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Josh Hart lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? BUY No 100¢ $33 23d
Will Harrison Barnes lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? BUY No 100¢ $30 23d
Will Josh Hart lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? BUY No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Mikal Bridges lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? BUY No 100¢ $33 23d
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 34d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, BUY No 100¢ $25 34d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 34d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 34d
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 47d
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 47d
Will White House post 0-19 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 47d
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $40 49d
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $40 49d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 100¢ $34 49d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $23 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $130 85d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $110 85d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $183 89d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 89d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 89d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 89d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 89d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 89d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 89d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.81 · official $207.81 (match) · 395 history records