Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0E
0x0e80…07f2
world · 38 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage516d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 0 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $34 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$3 -9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $12 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $269 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $119 −$5 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $39 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $45 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $16 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $13 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $42 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $231 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $226 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March? Mar 21 $18 −$18 -100%
George Washington vs. Loyola Chicago Feb 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 25? Feb 25 $6 +$11 +175%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $5 $0 +8%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 18 $6 −$1 -21%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 17 $2 −$1 -34%
St. Joseph's vs. George Mason Feb 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Feb 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Jackson State Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump positive favorability on inauguration day? Feb 05 $9 +$1 +13%
Trump Cabinet confirmation on Day 1? Feb 05 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 15 $1 +$4 +335%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-14? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 88% −$4
other 5% −$5
finance 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
tech 1% −$17
politics 1% $0
weather 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $28 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $6 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 41h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $37 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $37 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $9 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $41 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $40 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $3 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $3 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $40 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.8% -11.1% 17% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 39% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 0% -9.8%
all 38 +0.5% -9.0% 42% 13% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 13% -10.3%
10% -17.8% 8% -18.9%
15% -25.7% 5% -26.7%
20% -33.0% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records