Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e80…b9e4 other 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$801 (-1%) realized −$801 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate27%37W / 102L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,064per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days+$43
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$44
politics 35% −$62
sports 17% −$791
culture 3% −$4
world 2% −$3
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 38 +5.8% -4.3% 8% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -6.3% -15.2% 8% 5% -10.6%
all 139 +3.2% -6.6% 27% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 12% -10.0%
10% -15.6% 12% -18.6%
15% -23.7% 10% -26.5%
20% -31.2% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,393) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$24 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$801
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses37 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,064
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $354 $354 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $966 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $883 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $847 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,084 −$3 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $4,603 −$5 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $982 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $69 −$69 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $45 +$138 +307%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,317 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,247 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $442 +$1 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,759 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,424 −$4 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,086 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $42 +$50 +119%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $7,252 −$7 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? May 19 $551 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 29 $893 −$893 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $2,547 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $1,718 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $3,079 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $4,143 −$4 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $844 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $847 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2,159 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $812 5m
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $813 58m
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $964 2h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $966 4h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $724 44h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $725 46h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $727 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $728 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $881 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $883 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $846 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $847 3d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,014 3d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,015 3d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $354 4d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,284 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,286 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,172 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,174 8d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $714 8d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $716 8d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $710 8d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $711 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $909 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $910 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,041 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,042 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $981 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.08 · official $354.08 (match) · 417 history records