Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

0E 0x0e80…5209 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$174 (+18%) realized +$291 · open −$117

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%8W / 5L

Drawdown23%max

Avg bet$56per market

Trades / day7.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-13.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-4.4%	-13.5%	62%	62%	+12.7%
≤30d	13	-4.4%	-13.5%	62%	62%	+12.7%
≤90d	13	-4.4%	-13.5%	62%	62%	+12.7%
all	13	-4.4%	-13.5%	62%	62%	+12.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.5%	62%	+12.7%
10%	-21.8%	54%	+1.9%
15%	-29.3%	38%	-8.0%
20%	-36.3%	23%	-17.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -26% → late +14% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$29 vs −$13 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$151

Realized+$291

Unrealized−$117

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses8 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)13 / 17

History coverage4d

Avg bet$56

Trades / day7.7

Drawdown23%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$98	$97	−$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$35	$35	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	8¢	$130	$16	−$114 (-88%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	11¢	8¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-23%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran?	Jun 21	$3	−$1	-16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$253	+$60	+24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$76	+$33	+43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$35	+$11	+31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$142	+$89	+63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$15	+$8	+53%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$39	+$19	+48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$34	+$5	+14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$17	−$17	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$7	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$9	-88%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$35	47m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$48	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	58¢	$81	2h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran?	SELL Yes	59¢	$3	2h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran?	BUY Yes	69¢	$3	2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	84¢	$313	18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$253	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$109	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$76	27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	99¢	$46	28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	75¢	$35	29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	99¢	$231	46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$81	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$35	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$25	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	96¢	$23	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$15	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	73¢	$58	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$39	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$39	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	87¢	$34	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$7	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$17	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.90 · official $166.02 · 32 history records