Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0E 0x0e7f…1848 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 1091d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$735 (-7%) realized −$852 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$1,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$407
7 days+$407
14 days+$407
30 days+$758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$1,542
world 37% −$2,097
politics 7% +$486
crypto 4% −$445
tech 1% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +50.3% +36.0% 100% 100% +36.0%
≤30d 3 +54.4% +39.7% 67% 67% +51.4%
≤90d 3 +54.4% +39.7% 67% 67% +51.4%
all 38 -26.5% -33.5% 37% 37% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 37% -17.4%
10% -39.9% 34% -25.3%
15% -45.7% 29% -32.5%
20% -51.0% 26% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$159 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1091d coverage
Net worth$1,067
Realized−$852
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage1091d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $500 $588 +$88 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $200 $226 +$26 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $808 +$407 +50%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 20 $300 +$352 +117%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? May 20 $18 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $1,770 −$869 -49%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 15 $980 +$291 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $168 +$188 +112%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 02 $749 +$948 +127%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Dec 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 16 $1,083 −$1,083 -100%
Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 16 $184 −$114 -62%
Will Bungee win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Angstrom win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Across win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Anchorage win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Uniswap Foundation win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 16 $100 −$92 -92%
Will Uniswap Labs win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 16 $102 −$97 -95%
Will OpenZeppelin win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Espacio Cripto win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 19 $450 −$450 -100%
New Pope before July? Apr 08 $367 +$311 +85%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Feb 15 $235 +$132 +56%
Will Trump say "cat" at debate? Dec 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kamala say "liar" at debate? Dec 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kamala say "convicted felon" at debate? Dec 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Kamala say "I'm speaking" at debate? Dec 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kamala say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate? Dec 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? Dec 18 $47 −$40 -85%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate? Dec 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Sam Altman back on OpenAI board by Nov 30? Dec 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $349 +$287 +82%
Emmett Shear still CEO of OpenAI by end of week? Sep 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump say "fake news" at debate? Sep 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Kamala say "democracy" at debate? Sep 11 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? Jan 11 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Snoop smoke again in 2023? Nov 22 $98 +$38 +39%
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? Nov 22 $1 +$1 +96%
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? Nov 20 $47 +$51 +108%
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Sergio Massa win? Oct 23 $20 +$28 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,215 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 21h
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL No 62¢ $17 28d
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY No 64¢ $18 44d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $108 94d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1,272 94d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 64¢ $980 146d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $704 146d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $30 155d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $50 155d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $356 155d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $0 155d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $0 155d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $58 155d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $30 155d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $88 155d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,698 165d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $1,698 165d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $47 183d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 4¢ $75 183d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 190d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 191d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 191d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,066.69 · official $1,066.69 (match) · 478 history records