Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0E 0x0e7d…0efa other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+16%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$5
sports 11% +$2
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +35.0% +22.1% 53% 47% +13.4%
≤30d 17 +35.0% +22.1% 53% 47% +13.4%
≤90d 17 +35.0% +22.1% 53% 47% +13.4%
all 17 +35.0% +22.1% 53% 47% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.1% 47% +13.4%
10% +10.4% 47% +2.6%
15% -0.2% 47% -7.3%
20% -10.0% 41% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)17 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 29h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 42h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.76 · official $12.76 (match) · 40 history records