Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0e7b…eba3 crypto 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$624 (+3%) realized +$652 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%106W / 101L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days−$262
14 days−$292
30 days−$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$86
crypto 13% −$241
tech 3% +$146
other 2% +$25
sports 1% +$77
politics 1% +$1
finance 0% −$19
weather 0% −$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -13.5% -21.8% 50% 29% -15.9%
≤30d 139 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 35% -16.9%
≤90d 207 -9.5% -18.1% 51% 36% -8.8%
all 207 -9.5% -18.1% 51% 36% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 36% -8.8%
10% -25.9% 23% -17.5%
15% -33.1% 13% -25.5%
20% -39.6% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,225
Realized+$652
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses106 / 101
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)207 / 212
History coverage61d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,021 $1,024 +$3 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $171 $170 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 10¢ $52 $21 −$31 (-60%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $3,378 −$237 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$3 -18%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the Jun 23 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$30 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $36 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $90 9m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $370 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $362 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $320 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $14 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $14 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $14 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $14 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $17 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $52 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $126 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,225.21 · official $1,225.21 (match) · 1084 history records