Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e7a…4329 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+3%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$73
other 33% −$113
crypto 3% −$32
politics 1% −$3
culture 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 54% -13.9%
≤30d 13 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 54% -13.9%
≤90d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% -14.2%
all 18 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 44% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 44% -15.8%
10% -29.2% 44% -23.9%
15% -36.1% 33% -31.2%
20% -42.3% 22% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$33 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage106d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $73 +$36 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $195 −$122 -63%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $51 +$58 +114%
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $60 +$26 +44%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $88 +$23 +26%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $99 −$62 -63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$35 +70%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $76 +$26 +34%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $80 +$46 +57%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $68 −$26 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $8 −$1 -19%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $73 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $73 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $195 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $60 19h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 19h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $37 22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 SELL Over 22¢ $37 22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $99 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $88 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $101 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $76 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 28h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $126 31h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $80 44h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $43 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $43 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $68 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 96d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 96d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 103d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 103d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 105d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records