Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0E
0x0e78…e415
politics · 323 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$2,583 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,588 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$649
Realized−$2,588
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses110 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)319 / 323
History coverage464d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 4 History 319 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$922
7 days+$889
14 days+$889
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 74¢ $250 $259 +$9 (+3%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $170 $183 +$13 (+8%)
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2,175 $0 −$2,175 (-100%)
Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? No 18¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? No 70¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Nigma Galaxy 22¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? No 9¢ 0¢ $684 $0 −$684 (-100%)
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$173 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $403 +$130 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$89 +87%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $223 +$153 +68%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $201 +$318 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $142 +$59 +41%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $170 −$32 -19%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 16 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $188 −$91 -48%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $251 −$185 -74%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 15 $280 +$43 +15%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $21 −$2 -9%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $102 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 12 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $44 −$33 -75%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 08 $35 −$2 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 08 $100 −$66 -66%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 19 $684 −$684 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 19 $583 −$536 -92%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 17 $136 −$38 -28%
Will Como win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Oct 17 $15 −$13 -85%
Will Bologna win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Oct 17 $15 −$10 -67%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 16 $190 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 16 $492 +$26 +5%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October? Oct 16 $80 +$9 +12%
Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed? Oct 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Netanyahu out by 2025? Oct 14 $180 −$23 -13%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? Oct 14 $354 −$41 -12%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 14 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 14 $70 −$13 -19%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%? Oct 14 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? Oct 13 $24 −$14 -58%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? Oct 11 $40 −$1 -1%
French election called by October 31? Oct 10 $100 +$141 +141%
French election called by October 17? Oct 09 $100 +$64 +64%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 08 $629 −$28 -4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 08 $271 −$170 -63%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 08 $282 −$60 -21%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 08 $330 −$44 -13%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? Oct 08 $96 −$24 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% −$2,072
politics 21% +$3,158
other 17% −$2,998
crypto 5% −$904
sports 4% +$95
tech 2% +$312
culture 1% −$158
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $252 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $326 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $403 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $191 14h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $375 14h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $223 17h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $201 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $201 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $142 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $137 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $41 25d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 27d
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? BUY No 64¢ $25 27d
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? BUY No 63¢ $15 27d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 27d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 28d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 28d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 28d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 28d
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? BUY No 73¢ $101 28d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 28d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 28d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $323 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +68.9% +52.8% 86% 86% +48.2%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 54% 54% +21.3%
≤90d 22 -13.7% -22.0% 45% 36% +14.9%
all 319 -11.8% -20.2% 34% 25% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 25% -11.2%
10% -27.8% 17% -19.7%
15% -34.8% 15% -27.4%
20% -41.2% 12% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $649.46 · official $649.46 (match) · 2221 history records