Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0E 0x0e73…f7c3 other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$17
politics 24% −$7
sports 4% +$8
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.0% -9.5% 10% 7% -9.6%
all 100 -0.0% -9.5% 10% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 7% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 6% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage88d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 41¢ 40¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $326 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $315 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,215 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $480 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $296 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $308 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $709 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $442 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $238 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $252 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $242 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $250 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 19 $250 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $480 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $446 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 14 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $292 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $256 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $6 4h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 23h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 26h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 44h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $109 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $91 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 15d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.32 · official $152.32 (match) · 301 history records