Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e71…2721 sports 414 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$37 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%252W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$36
14 days+$119
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$292
other 5% +$155
crypto 0% −$7
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -4.8% -13.8% 57% 57% -11.5%
≤30d 147 -7.9% -16.7% 56% 56% -10.9%
≤90d 392 +14.9% +4.0% 61% 59% -10.1%
all 411 +14.1% +3.2% 61% 59% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 59% -10.4%
10% -6.7% 52% -19.0%
15% -15.7% 39% -26.8%
20% -23.9% 23% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$24 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses252 / 159
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions3
Markets (closed)411 / 414
History coverage95d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 57¢ 52¢ $180 $162 −$18 (-10%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 27¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $61 +$28 +47%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$2 +36%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $35 +$15 +41%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$12 +116%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $70 −$69 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$10 +112%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$12 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 +$36 +118%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$21 +75%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$13 +77%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$8 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$15 +90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$26 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$14 +116%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$8 +156%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$10 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 +$21 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $136 +$92 +68%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$5 -61%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $10 24m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 25m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $51 26m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $20 26m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $89 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $8 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 72¢ $6 15h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $40 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 51¢ $5 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $15 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $30 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $36 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 88¢ $22 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.66 · official $175.66 (match) · 824 history records