Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e70…bb75 weather 1261 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$343 (-1%) realized −$337 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%1174W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$126
14 days−$95
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% −$81
sports 45% −$432
world 1% +$85
other 1% −$2
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.3% -12.5% 93% 0% -15.5%
≤30d 117 -3.0% -12.2% 94% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 1249 -1.2% -10.6% 94% 2% -10.7%
all 1249 -1.2% -10.6% 94% 2% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -10.7%
10% -19.2% 1% -19.2%
15% -27.0% 1% -27.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$26 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized−$337
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1174 / 75
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1249 / 1261
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? No 98¢ 91¢ $64 $60 −$4 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $47 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 96¢ 89¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 −$27 -58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $65 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $63 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $63 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $85 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $31 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 96¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $52 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $58 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $65 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $48 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $55 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 42¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $47 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $61 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 35h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 35h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $67 36h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $65 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.38 · official $380.38 (match) · 3500 history records