Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e6d…b276 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,924 (-6%) realized −$2,051 · open +$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%34W / 49L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$395per market
Trades / day167.1pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$325
sports 11% −$190
other 8% −$892
world 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -30.0% -36.6% 41% 35% -11.1%
≤30d 83 -30.0% -36.6% 41% 35% -11.1%
≤90d 83 -30.0% -36.6% 41% 35% -11.1%
all 83 -30.0% -36.6% 41% 35% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover167.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.6% 35% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.7% 29% -19.6%
15% -48.2% 16% -27.4%
20% -53.3% 10% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$610) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -52% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$143 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$2,051
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses34 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage3d
Avg bet$395
Trades / day167.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 44¢ 100¢ $100 $227 +$127 (+127%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $411 +$257 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $537 +$172 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $721 −$77 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $308 +$164 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $573 −$573 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1,145 −$348 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,358 +$121 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $623 +$741 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $819 −$819 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $950 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1,127 −$250 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1,114 +$222 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1,110 +$155 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $918 +$371 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $805 +$77 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $610 +$203 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $328 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $354 −$354 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$137 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,124 −$100 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $815 +$296 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $435 +$121 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,065 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $542 +$233 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $404 +$96 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $336 +$109 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $254 +$64 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $234 +$66 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $245 −$242 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $654 −$206 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$66 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $130 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $169 +$53 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $375 −$64 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $301 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $149 +$26 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$57 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $810 −$502 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $716 −$602 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $924 +$360 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $646 +$281 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $508 +$149 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $309 +$206 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $518 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $241 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $404 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $62 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.66 · official $225.64 (match) · 516 history records