Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e6c…1c75 crypto 519 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$783 (-4%) realized −$791 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%309W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$844
crypto 38% +$134
other 12% +$326
world 3% −$363
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% +5.3%
≤30d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% +5.3%
≤90d 27 -29.1% -35.8% 48% 44% -24.9%
all 516 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 57% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 57% -12.9%
10% -22.1% 46% -21.2%
15% -29.6% 34% -28.8%
20% -36.5% 23% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$32 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$791
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses309 / 207
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)516 / 519
History coverage120d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $129 +$62 +48%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 23 $73 −$72 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 23 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 23 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 23 $33 +$20 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 23 $45 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 23 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 23 $50 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 23 $183 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 23 $100 +$83 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 23 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 23 $74 +$74 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 23 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 23 $78 −$74 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$9 -93%
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 23 $50 +$19 +38%
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx Apr 23 $50 +$27 +55%
Shymkent: Timofey Skatov vs Daniil Ostapenkov Apr 23 $340 −$224 -66%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $63 −$62 -98%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Petra Marcinko Apr 23 $50 +$13 +26%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $97 +$27 +27%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $100 +$26 +26%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $200 +$40 +20%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $293 −$292 -100%
Counter-Strike: Players vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South America S Mar 01 $45 −$45 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $35 +$10 +28%
Charlotte 49ers vs. Florida Atlantic Owls Mar 01 $49 −$48 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $32 +$17 +54%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Mar 01 $20 +$12 +58%
BYU Cougars vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Mar 01 $21 +$5 +23%
Alabama State Hornets vs. Alabama A&M Bulldogs Mar 01 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $70 +$31 +45%
Lugano: Zsombor Piros vs Mika Brunold Feb 28 $30 +$18 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gro Feb 28 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 28 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 28 $55 +$70 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 28 $157 −$13 -8%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 28 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 28 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 28 $30 +$33 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 28 $30 +$44 +146%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $129 15h
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 49¢ $73 54d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 58¢ $100 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $40 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $45 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $17 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $50 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $50 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $183 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $38 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $100 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $10 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $74 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $100 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $78 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 54d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 31¢ $63 54d
Shymkent: Timofey Skatov vs Daniil Ostapenkov BUY Daniil Ostapenkov 76¢ $240 54d
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 72¢ $50 54d
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx BUY Alexander Blockx 64¢ $50 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.73 · official $117.73 (match) · 967 history records