Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e6c…74d1 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1
other 32% +$1
sports 8% $0
politics 7% $0
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.5%
≤30d 9 -7.1% -15.9% 56% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -7.1% -15.9% 56% 0% -10.2%
all 36 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -10.2%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage466d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$5 -75%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening May 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $13 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $2 $0 -10%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $7 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $25 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $4 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $29 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $28 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $2 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $18 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $15 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 45¢ $32 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $18 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $4 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $9 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $31 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 19d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 362d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 362d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.62 · official $31.62 (match) · 97 history records