Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0E 0x0e67…e551 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$3 (+11%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +270% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +209% what you keep after slip
Net edge+209%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$15
sports 12% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+234.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +270.2% +234.9% 40% 40% +7.2%
≤30d 5 +270.2% +234.9% 40% 40% +7.2%
≤90d 5 +270.2% +234.9% 40% 40% +7.2%
all 5 +270.2% +234.9% 40% 40% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +234.9% 40% +7.2%
10% +202.9% 40% -3.1%
15% +173.6% 40% -12.5%
20% +146.8% 40% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +270% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +132%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1519%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 24h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.67 · official $7.67 (match) · 12 history records