Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0E 0x0e67…a1f3 other 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,873 (+1%) realized +$1,873 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%31W / 158L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,343per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$45
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$201
politics 35% −$128
sports 9% +$2,153
economics 3% −$6
culture 2% −$9
tech 1% −$1
world 1% −$5
crypto 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 -4.2% -13.3% 7% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 115 -3.0% -12.2% 6% 3% -8.9%
all 189 +2.2% -7.6% 16% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 10% -8.9%
10% -16.4% 10% -17.6%
15% -24.5% 9% -25.6%
20% -31.9% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,891) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$7 · ×13.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$1,873
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses31 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)189 / 191
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,343
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $157 $157 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $135 $136 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $4,739 −$5 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $263 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $304 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $2,691 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $4,390 −$5 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,174 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,937 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,990 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,551 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,206 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,405 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,284 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,615 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,110 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $3,501 −$5 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $68 +$72 +105%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,131 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,817 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $71 +$48 +67%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $434 +$2 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $210 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $323 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,215 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $5,419 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,637 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,332 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,728 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $6,111 −$6 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 27 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $279 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $279 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $157 3h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $263 3h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $263 4h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $303 7h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $304 8h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $262 30h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $262 32h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $332 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $333 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $487 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $488 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $835 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $836 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $835 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $836 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $702 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $704 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $724 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $725 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $732 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $733 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $709 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $710 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $820 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.76 · official $292.76 (match) · 646 history records