Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e66…f7d8 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$1
other 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.3% -24.2% 60% 40% -8.9%
≤30d 10 -16.3% -24.2% 60% 40% -8.9%
≤90d 10 -16.3% -24.2% 60% 40% -8.9%
all 10 -16.3% -24.2% 60% 40% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 40% -8.9%
10% -31.5% 30% -17.6%
15% -38.1% 30% -25.6%
20% -44.2% 20% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 32¢ 32¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.61 · official $24.61 (match) · 25 history records