Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e64…336d sports 335 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$88,569 (-11%) realized −$90,903 · open +$2,334
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%152W / 158L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,439per market
Trades / day67.1pace
Fees−$11,229est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$21,463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24,692
7 days−$9,453
14 days−$15,601
30 days−$41,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$72,400
other 7% −$7,270
world 1% +$351
politics 1% −$1,783
crypto 0% +$710
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -10.5% -19.0% 49% 46% -16.2%
≤30d 246 -0.5% -9.9% 51% 50% -16.4%
≤90d 310 -4.1% -13.2% 49% 47% -18.9%
all 310 -4.1% -13.2% 49% 47% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 47% -18.9%
10% -21.5% 45% -26.7%
15% ← realistic here -29.1% 41% -33.8%
20% -36.0% 38% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$4,273) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,225 vs −$2,664 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$21,463
Realized−$90,903
Unrealized+$2,334
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses152 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$11,229
Open positions25
Markets (closed)310 / 335
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$2,439
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 72¢ 80¢ $2,917 $3,226 +$309 (+11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,700 $2,650 +$950 (+56%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 74¢ 82¢ $1,564 $1,733 +$169 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $1,124 $1,579 +$455 (+40%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 74¢ $1,367 $1,546 +$179 (+13%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 46¢ 74¢ $794 $1,269 +$475 (+60%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $1,130 $1,177 +$47 (+4%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? No 87¢ 87¢ $1,017 $1,024 +$7 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 86¢ 86¢ $951 $957 +$6 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $957 $913 −$44 (-5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $906 $911 +$5 (+1%)
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Team Liquid 65¢ 66¢ $876 $896 +$20 (+2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $910 $585 −$325 (-36%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 81¢ $415 $497 +$82 (+20%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Sweden 45¢ 44¢ $498 $481 −$17 (-3%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? No 87¢ 88¢ $450 $454 +$5 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 99¢ $326 $381 +$56 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage EYEBALLERS 31¢ 30¢ $357 $352 −$6 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $333 $324 −$9 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Monte 62¢ 62¢ $177 $178 +$1 (+1%)
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $157 $158 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $182 $147 −$35 (-19%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BetBoom Team 74¢ 74¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 99¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+27%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? No 29¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $2,000 +$3,000 +150%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $5,100 +$4,900 +96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $931 +$710 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $622 −$621 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $5,578 −$5,550 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5,512 +$3,378 +61%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,048 +$1,358 +130%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $1,750 −$1,750 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $775 +$307 +40%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $4,279 −$4,274 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $5,989 +$5,311 +89%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $1,614 +$2,869 +178%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,707 $0 -0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $519 −$519 -100%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $89 −$89 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut Jun 27 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 27 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $176 −$176 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $535 −$535 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 27 $672 −$672 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $598 −$598 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $530 −$530 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $492 −$492 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $334 −$334 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 27 $582 −$582 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 27 $818 −$818 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou Jun 27 $441 −$441 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $538 −$538 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $549 −$549 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 27 $507 −$507 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 27 $429 −$429 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $518 −$518 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $518 −$518 -100%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 27 $424 −$424 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $879 −$879 -100%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $458 −$458 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $1,153 −$1,153 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $1,059 −$1,059 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $1,324 −$1,324 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $1,368 −$1,368 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 27 $1,572 −$1,572 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $1,813 −$1,813 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $1,743 −$1,743 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $2,874 −$2,874 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $1,631 −$1,631 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 27 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 27 $2,058 −$2,058 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $2,875 −$2,875 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group S BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $4 15m
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $157 28m
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Sta BUY Monte 62¢ $4 38m
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? BUY No 87¢ $450 39m
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Sta BUY Monte 62¢ $5 43m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group S BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $9 43m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $906 48m
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? BUY No 87¢ $1,017 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $342 2h
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $876 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $955 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY EYEBALLERS 31¢ $365 3h
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Sta BUY Monte 62¢ $170 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $457 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $2 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $339 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 56¢ $498 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 56¢ $8 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $3 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $1 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 56¢ $2 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $179 8h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 51¢ $5,100 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $116 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $1 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $3 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $30 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $1 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $56 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,462.90 · official $21,463.08 (match) · 3500 history records