Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e62…0767 sports 392 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%177W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$8
other 11% +$1
crypto 3% −$5
politics 2% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -27.8% -34.7% 39% 39% -35.3%
≤30d 58 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 48% -14.5%
≤90d 196 -27.5% -34.4% 38% 33% -25.4%
all 389 +3.0% -6.8% 46% 36% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 36% -12.1%
10% -15.7% 28% -20.6%
15% -23.9% 23% -28.2%
20% -31.3% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses177 / 212
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)389 / 392
History coverage229d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 61¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 −$3 -73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 +$1 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 $0 -14%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $2 +$3 +120%
Spread: Ukraine (-1.5) Jun 08 $0 $0 +125%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +66%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1 +$1 +83%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $1 +$1 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 +$1 +86%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $2 −$1 -66%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -83%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +79%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $1 +$1 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2 +$2 +83%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 +$2 +76%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $1 +$1 +77%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 60¢ $1 25h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $1 26h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 53¢ $1 26h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $2 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $1 5d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 55¢ $1 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $1 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 34¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 33¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 53¢ $2 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 40¢ $2 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 55¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.07 · official $3.07 (match) · 901 history records