Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e61…9263 world 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%30W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 16% −$7
politics 15% −$1
sports 14% +$2
economics 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 31 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 71 -1.2% -10.6% 34% 1% -9.4%
all 82 -3.5% -12.7% 37% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -28.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses30 / 52
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage530d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -19%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $138 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 +$1 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $136 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $36 +$4 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $196 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $7 −$2 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $164 +$2 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $42 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $137 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $41 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 −$2 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $47 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $70 +$1 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $42 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $209 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $21 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $217 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 26m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 27m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $18 27m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $2 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $22 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $16 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $47 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $10 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.64 · official $34.23 (match) · 359 history records