Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e60…5638 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$20
politics 22% −$10
sports 13% +$95
economics 3% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 124 +5.2% -4.8% 11% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 9% -9.4%
10% -13.9% 6% -18.0%
15% -22.2% 4% -26.0%
20% -29.8% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×14.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage130d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $258 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $201 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $221 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $402 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,327 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $434 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $289 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $282 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $316 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $293 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $319 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 13 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $274 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $331 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $326 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $305 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 14h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $40 16d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $40 16d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 17d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 17d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 17d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $38 18d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 20d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 20d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $201 21d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $201 23d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $221 24d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $221 25d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $205 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $205 26d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $220 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $220 27d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $237 27d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $237 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $211 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 361 history records