Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e5d…820d world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-14%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% $0
world 20% −$3
other 12% +$1
politics 12% +$1
finance 13% −$2
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +83.9% +66.4% 100% 100% +68.8%
≤30d 3 +22.6% +10.9% 67% 67% +28.8%
≤90d 6 -38.7% -44.5% 33% 33% -34.3%
all 6 -38.7% -44.5% 33% 33% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 33% -34.3%
10% -49.8% 33% -40.6%
15% -54.7% 33% -46.3%
20% -59.1% 33% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 62¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +72%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 62¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $2 15d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $1 32d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 47d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 51¢ $3 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? BUY No 46¢ $2 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 10 history records