trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 53¢ | 99¢ | $315,158 | $596,100 | +$280,942 (+89%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $297,300 | $298,350 | +$1,050 (+0%) |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | $49,730 | $51,012 | +$1,282 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 11 | $301,993 | +$7,270 | +2% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 10 | $3,175,000 | +$900,000 | +28% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Jun 06 | $130,723 | −$129,474 | -99% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Jun 06 | $99,905 | −$99,518 | -100% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | Jun 05 | $36,800 | +$2,639 | +7% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $838,582 | +$42,487 | +5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $301,022 | +$2,000 | +1% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $50,868 | +$51 | +0% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? | May 30 | $6,074 | +$61 | +1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? | May 30 | $8,424 | +$12,470 | +148% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? | May 30 | $115,061 | +$34,939 | +30% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 26 | $216,043 | +$5,432 | +2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | May 23 | $193,542 | +$5,711 | +3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 21 | $46,589 | +$441 | +1% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | May 20 | $14,000 | −$345 | -2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 20 | $46,744 | +$3,943 | +8% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? | May 20 | $9,217 | +$595 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 18 | $1,185 | +$222 | +19% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 14 | $425,768 | +$4,159 | +1% |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $399,600 | +$400 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 10 | $24,120 | +$658 | +3% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -32.1% | -38.6% | 60% | 20% | +6.9% |
| ≤30d | 20 | +3.2% | -6.7% | 85% | 20% | +1.7% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 86% | 19% | +1.6% |
| all | 21 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 86% | 19% | +1.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -6.7% | 19% | +1.6% |
| 10% | -15.6% | 14% | -8.1% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -23.8% | 5% | -17.0% |
| 20% | -31.2% | 5% | -25.1% |