Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e58…5749 sports 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,326 (-4%) realized −$26,393 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 39L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,088per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$4,220est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,756
7 days−$2,365
14 days+$13,504
30 days−$15,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$21,454
other 8% −$7,144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -21.1% -28.6% 42% 33% -13.7%
≤30d 54 -19.2% -26.9% 52% 39% -12.9%
≤90d 74 -24.0% -31.2% 50% 38% -14.2%
all 79 -22.5% -29.9% 51% 37% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.9% 37% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 24% -21.4%
15% -42.7% 14% -29.0%
20% -48.3% 5% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$9,764) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,004 vs −$2,791 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized−$26,393
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$4,220
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage170d
Avg bet$9,088
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $357 $424 +$67 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,001 −$882 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,905 −$2,874 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,012 −$930 -92%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $305 −$300 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $211 −$105 -50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,006 +$414 +41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $14,793 +$3,542 +24%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $871 −$865 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,820 −$1,820 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,016 −$106 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$131 -64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,004 −$250 -25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,352 +$824 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,286 +$68 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2,065 +$220 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,956 +$105 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $543 −$156 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,844 +$267 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,449 +$395 +27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4,992 −$374 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,900 +$1,260 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $559 +$278 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $611 −$52 -8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,980 −$894 -30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $70,845 +$7,764 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $33,512 +$3,178 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $8,158 −$8,135 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $10,084 +$3,791 +38%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,640 −$740 -45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $2,622 +$185 +7%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7,019 +$203 +3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7,319 +$144 +2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $29,486 +$9,133 +31%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $4,016 +$577 +14%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $2,022 +$1,100 +54%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $5,144 +$717 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $1,180 −$830 -70%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $11,254 +$1,366 +12%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30,388 −$2,586 -8%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $401 −$394 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1,229 −$1,217 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 31 $2,486 +$748 +30%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $319 +$286 +90%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $48 +$7 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $2,368 −$2,359 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $41,073 −$9,130 -22%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $9,784 −$9,764 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $8,029 +$2,252 +28%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $19,603 +$7,092 +36%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $9,338 −$6,997 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $359 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1,119 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,001 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,905 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 5¢ $82 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $98 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $1,012 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $106 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $207 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $211 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $1,419 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,006 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $18,335 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $2,928 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $80 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $48 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $39 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $4 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $19 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $1 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $6 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $200 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $6 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $25 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $78 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $15 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $39 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $3,803 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $1,662 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.81 · official $423.81 (match) · 695 history records