Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0E 0x0e56…b40b other 7 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$2 (-24%) realized −$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%1W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-29.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-22.5%	-29.9%	14%	14%	-38.3%
≤30d	7	-22.5%	-29.9%	14%	14%	-38.3%
≤90d	7	-22.5%	-29.9%	14%	14%	-38.3%
all	7	-22.5%	-29.9%	14%	14%	-38.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.9%	14%	-38.3%
10%	-36.6%	14%	-44.2%
15%	-42.7%	14%	-49.6%
20%	-48.4%	14%	-54.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses1 / 6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$1

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	+$5	+442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$2	34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	45¢	$1	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records