Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e54…de89 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$4
other 17% +$1
economics 3% −$2
politics 2% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 6% -10.4%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 6% -10.4%
all 27 -5.3% -14.3% 33% 4% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 4% -11.0%
10% -22.5% 0% -19.5%
15% -30.0% 0% -27.3%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage471d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $28 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $24 −$2 -9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $98 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $3 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +20%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 15 $5 −$2 -47%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $7 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 16 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $27 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $28 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $15 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $14 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $32 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $5 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $0 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $22 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $17 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $13 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $31 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $29 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $32 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records