Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0e50…2609 sports 876 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,441 (+2%) realized +$4,750 · open +$691
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%449W / 423L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day98.7pace
Fees−$3,627est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,880
7 days+$740
14 days−$396
30 days+$4,455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$1,048
other 7% +$4,381
world 0% +$701
crypto 0% +$723
culture 0% +$35
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 337 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 51% -8.9%
≤30d 863 +3.6% -6.2% 52% 51% -8.0%
≤90d 872 +3.6% -6.2% 51% 50% -8.0%
all 872 +3.6% -6.2% 51% 50% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 50% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 43% -16.8%
15% -23.4% 36% -24.8%
20% -30.9% 30% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$294 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2,626
Realized+$4,750
Unrealized+$691
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses449 / 423
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$3,627
Open positions6
Markets (closed)872 / 876
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$306
Trades / day98.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 872 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 45¢ 81¢ $600 $1,087 +$487 (+81%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 66¢ 69¢ $550 $575 +$25 (+5%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 27¢ 40¢ $300 $444 +$144 (+48%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Over 51¢ 54¢ $363 $384 +$20 (+6%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 23¢ 24¢ $95 $102 +$6 (+7%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 59¢ 79¢ $26 $34 +$9 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 402 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 5star - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $642 −$642 -100%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play Jun 17 $490 −$490 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $455 +$121 +26%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 17 $312 +$49 +16%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $331 −$326 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $396 −$396 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $312 +$130 +42%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $315 +$107 +34%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $312 −$307 -98%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 17 $313 +$171 +55%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 17 $325 +$356 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +119%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $327 −$321 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $60 −$59 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 17 $300 +$854 +285%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $300 +$469 +156%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $621 −$621 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $329 −$323 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $316 −$311 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $325 −$319 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 17 $327 −$320 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $300 +$312 +104%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $309 +$549 +178%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $600 +$938 +156%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $640 +$823 +129%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $600 +$624 +104%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $87 +$208 +238%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $600 −$600 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $492 +$1,908 +388%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $683 −$667 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $556 +$569 +102%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $600 −$600 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 16 $310 +$80 +26%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 16 $642 −$268 -42%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $315 +$242 +77%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $389 −$387 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $315 −$311 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $311 −$308 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $300 +$236 +79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $358 +$428 +120%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 16 $301 +$47 +16%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 16 $216 +$30 +14%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 16 $311 +$123 +40%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 16 $316 +$272 +86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +257%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $324 −$318 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 23¢ $98 10m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 45¢ $600 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 79¢ $406 6h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 79¢ $49 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 46¢ $248 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 46¢ $52 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 37¢ $92 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 44¢ $312 6h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 41¢ $329 6h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 86¢ $312 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 32¢ $300 6h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $3 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 70¢ $312 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 31¢ $327 7h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 7h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $48 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $0 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 27¢ $11 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 22¢ $300 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 74¢ $315 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $621 8h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 28¢ $298 8h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 28¢ $2 8h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 47¢ $325 8h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 64¢ $313 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 40¢ $329 8h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $316 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,625.81 · official $2,731.06 · 3500 history records